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2040: 21,400 (8,250 households @ 2.59 average household size) <br />2050: 21,400 (no increase) <br />From the Met Council’s Senior Manager of Local Planning Assistance, Angela Torres: “We routinely have staff-to- <br />staff agreements on forecast adjustments during development of the decennial Plan updates and we are willing <br />to discuss an expanded 2050 forecast in mid-2027 after the White Bear Lake Area Comprehensive Plan Work <br />Group concludes. At that point, we’d know more about everyone’s comfort (neighboring cities, DNR, etc.) and <br />local systems preparedness. Until then, Met Council will limit forecast increases as described in "Forecast <br />Methodology for the White Bear Lake Area Communities.” <br />Amending the 2040 Plan: <br />The above communication from Angela Torres, Senior Manager of Local Planning Assistance with the Met <br />Council, states that for the City to utilize the population forecast numbers from its 2040 Plan a comprehensive <br />plan amendment is necessary. However, the Met Council has not agreed to use the numbers found in the <br />adopted plan with modifications identified based primarily on fluctuations in average household size in the <br />region. <br />The Following comparison articulates the differences between what is in the current 2040 Plan and how it would <br />be amended: <br />Adopted vs Amended 2040 <br />Plan Forecasts <br />2030 (as amended with average <br />household size of 2.66 instead of 2.77) <br />2040 (as amended with average <br />household size of 2.59 instead of 2.72) <br />Households Unsewered 2642 (2472)2742 (2200) <br />Households MUSA 3858 (4728)5458 (6050) <br />Total Households 6500 (7200)8200 (8250) <br />Total Population 18,005 (19,200)22,304 (21,400) <br />Employment Unsewered 562 562 <br />Employment MUSA 2788 3238 <br />Total Employment 3350 3800 <br />Staff find that the adjusted numbers are reasonable given that there is an expected net increase in households <br />but a reduction in population given the regionwide trend of reduced household size. The above amended <br />forecast is both consistent with the adopted 2040 plan and would be accepted by the Met Council as it does not <br />represent additional growth which would not be supported by the Met Council’s WBL Memo policy. Staff are <br />therefore supportive of an amendment to the 2040 plan. This would provide a reasonable starting point for