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Page | 4 MN STATE DEMOGRAPHIC CENTER JANUARY 2015 Introduction Like others all across the nation, many Minnesotans are on the move. Throughout their lives, they move in and around the state, throughout the states, and occasionally abroad. They change addresses for job prospects or educational opportunities, to reunite with family or friends, or to seek out amenities they desire. Some residents leave and boomerang back. Some leave and never look back. The continuous, dynamic patterns of migration also brings many new residents, workers, cultures, and influences into our state—people seeking to construct a better life, however that is personally defined. Minnesota’s population is a composite of home-grown residents and transplants from other states and destinations around the world. This report examines these many currents of migration, highlighting implications and suggesting opportunities to retain and attract additional people, to build our labor force and secure a strong economic future. Why Does Migration Matter To Minnesota? Understanding the patterns of people moving in and out of our state is critical for leaders seeking to prepare Minnesota for its future. Minnesota is entering a new demographic era, where the three components of population change—births, deaths and migration—will change in their relative influence. Our labor force and population growth will slow dramatically, and migration’s impact will become far more prominent. Over the coming decades, the Baby Boomer generation will continue to exit Minnesota’s labor force, and while the labor force they leave behind will still grow, that growth will be very modest. In the 1990s our state’s labor force gained about 40,000 new net participants each year; however, we project that through the remainder of the present decade (the 2010s), our labor force will grow by only about 8,000 people annually.i Between 2020 and 2030, we project further slowing, with just 4,000 people annually enlarging the labor force—one-tenth the size of the expansion during the 1990s (see Figure 1).Minnesota will experience a heightened need for migration to strengthen our labor force as the largest birth cohort in history leaves its working years behind. Over the next 15 years, Minnesota will see more people moving out of the workforce and into retirement than in the last six decades combined. At present, the major driver of Minnesota’s population growth is “natural change,” defined as the number of births occurring over and above the deaths. Most recently, Minnesota’s population increased by 0.6% from 2013 to 2014, and by 2.9% since the date of the 2010 Census. Since then, Minnesota has added about 153,200 residents. The majority of this growth—about four out of each five people added—is due to natural increase, while the remaining one is due to positive net migration. 32,000 38,000 25,000 8,000 4,000 13,000 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census. MN State Demographic Center Projections. Figure 1: Historical and Projected Growth In Minnesota's Labor Force, Ages 16+, Annual Average, 1980-2039