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Page | 3 MN STATE DEMOGRAPHIC CENTER JANUARY 2015
<br />Minnesota On The Move:
<br />Migration Patterns & Implications
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<br />Executive Summary
<br />Minnesota is entering a new demographic era, when the three components of population change—births, deaths
<br />and migration—will change in their relative influence. Within the next three decades, the number of births in
<br />Minnesota will be eclipsed by the number of deaths—for the first time in our state’s history. When that occurs,
<br />by the early 2040s, if our state is to experience any population growth at all, it will necessarily be from
<br />migration. Over these same coming decades, the Baby Boomer generation will continue to exit the labor force,
<br />and overall labor force growth will slow nearly to a halt. Thus, our state will experience a heightened need for
<br />migration to grow at all, but especially to shore up its labor force needs.
<br />Given this rising importance of migration to our state, this report examines the patterns and net movement of
<br />people in and out of Minnesota. Importantly, we find that:
<br /> Between 1991 and 2001, Minnesota’s domestic (state-to-state) net migration was consistently positive.
<br />However, each year following 2001, Minnesota has lost more people to other U.S. states than it has
<br />gained. Recent estimates put domestic net losses at approximately 7,000 to 12,000 people per year.
<br /> Despite these domestic losses, even greater numbers of arriving international residents—including
<br />foreign students and work VISA holders, refugees, and other immigrants—have resulted in sustained
<br />positive overall migration.
<br /> Each year of the past two decades, Minnesota has gained more people than it has lost to other places.
<br />However in the 1990s, migration added more than 15,000 people on average each year from migration,
<br />while annual gains have fallen below 9,000 on average each year since 2000.
<br /> The likelihood of moving, both in and out of Minnesota, peaks in the late teens and early 20s, and then
<br />tapers gradually into older adulthood. However, net losses to domestic migration are seen among three
<br />segments of Minnesotans: age 18-24 (about 9,300 lost annually), age 35-39 (about 1,500 lost annually),
<br />and age 60-69 (about 2,200 lost annually).
<br /> While 21,000 young adults move to Minnesota each year to attend college or graduate school, even
<br />greater numbers of students (29,000) leave the state each year. In fact, two-thirds of Minnesota’s total
<br />annual domestic net loss is due to Minnesota students leaving for higher education, and far fewer return
<br />in the post-college years. Thus, retaining more of our college-bound young adults at in-state institutions
<br />may be a key strategy to long-term population retention and labor force development.
<br />Compared to other Midwestern states (excepting oil-rich outlier North Dakota), Minnesota competes favorably
<br />in terms of overall positive net migration. But considering the reversal of domestic migration to a net outflow
<br />more than a decade ago, and given our state’s near-term labor force challenges with the Boomers’ retirement,
<br />additional attention to our migration situation is warranted. More than 100,000 people come to Minnesota from
<br />other states each year, and an even greater number leave Minnesota for other states. These sizeable flows of
<br />people present an opportunity to change the migration equation to better benefit our state. Minnesota should
<br />work to stem and reverse domestic losses, redouble efforts to attract and integrate new residents, especially
<br />young adults, and seek to retain its current resident population.
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