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St. Anthony 2040 Comprehensive Plan Chapter 6: Transportation 84 FUTURE ROADWAY SYSTEM This section addresses future roadway improvement needs and roadway design guidelines. Roadway Capacity – Traffic Forecasting To determine future roadway capacity needs, year 2040 traffic forecasts were prepared using the Metropolitan Council travel demand model. The model was refined for application specifically for St. Anthony Village. The 2040 projections were compared against the assumed 2040 roadway network to see where roadway segment capacity deficiencies may result. The 2040 roadway network assumed for this analysis is the same as the current roadway network, as the City and County Capital Improvement Plans (CIPs) do not include any projects that add significant capacity to the roadway network. While the travel demand model is a valuable tool for identifying future traffic based on the proposed land use impacts, it is not meant for use in detailed traffic operations studies. For a more accurate representation of the transportation impacts from specific developments, detailed traffic studies should be conducted to determine the operational impacts on adjacent roadways and intersections. A central concept of travel demand forecasting is the use of Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs). Each forecast study area, in this case, the City of St. Anthony Village, is divided into a series of TAZs. Each TAZ has population, employment, and household data that is used by the model to assign trips to the various network roadways. FIGURE 6-9 displays Metropolitan Council TAZs within St. Anthony Village. The results of the St. Anthony Village modeling process are summarized in FIGURE 6-10, which displays Metropolitan Council 2040 projected average daily traffic volumes compared to the existing (2014) traffic volumes. For purposes of comparison, FIGURE 6-10 also includes 2030 forecasted traffic volumes resulting from adding the proposed Southern Gateway development in the southwestern portion of the City. TABLE 5 provides a summary of existing and forecasted demographic growth by TAZ for St. Anthony Village through the year 2040. The St. Anthony Village population is forecasted to reach nearly 11,000 by the year 2040, with households and employment increasing by approximately 1,300 and 700 respectively. Allocated demographic growth and associated land use was generally located in the southwestern and northern portions of the community. High density residential was also generally allocated to the southwestern and northwestern portions of the City, with commercial and multi-optional development areas also generally identified within the northern portion of the City. For more information about the demographic allocation and associated land use forecast, please refer to the St. Anthony Village Land Use Plan in Chapter 4 of the St. Anthony Village Comprehensive Plan.