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9 the number of current cigar smokers within each cohort of 18 year old adults by approximately 112,000.40 Their model did not take into account mortality rates among dual users suggesting the benefits might be underreported. BUSINESS AND LABOR MARKET IMPACT Policymakers have an interest in understanding the fiscal and labor market impacts of regulations on flavored tobacco products. Here we provide economic arguments examining the extent to which banning or restricting tobacco flavors may impact tobacco retailer sales and downstream effects on businesses and employment. When compliance is high, a comprehensive flavor ban or restriction without exemptions is likely to significantly affect sales of flavored tobacco products. As previously mentioned, in New York City after a flavor restriction was implemented,†† sales on all flavored tobacco products declined by 87%.26 A concern for policymakers is whether a decline of such a magnitude would affect businesses and the labor market in a significant way. Economic research indicates that the impact of a ban on flavored tobacco products would be relatively narrow, for three reasons: 1. Most retailers selling flavored tobacco products do not rely on these products as their only or primary source of their revenue, 2. Consumers are likely to spend money originally intended for a banned tobacco product on other purchases, including tobacco products and other goods and services, and 3. Labor and other resources not used in the supply and sale of a banned product tend to be redirected to other uses.41 An enduring feature of the tobacco retailer environment is that the majority of tobacco sellers do not specialize in the sale of tobacco †† Again, e-cigarettes were not included in New York City’s flavor restriction and therefore not included in the data. products. In 2012, convenience stores (including those linked to gas stations), supermarkets and pharmacies accounted for 80% of locations where tobacco is sold.42 At the retailer level, regulations that affect particular classes of products result in changes in the composition of what is sold. For example, when retailers in Boston, MA were asked what was done with shelf-space after their policy was implemented, over 70% indicated they replaced the flavored products with non-flavored tobacco products, 13% with non-tobacco products, 7% with no additional products, and the remaining retailers cited something else or that they did not know.43 These data suggest the vast majority of tobacco retailers can adapt and thereby significantly mitigate risk of business closures and reduced employment. The e-cigarette retail sector is relatively new, with low barriers to entry – by some estimates, setting up a vape shop can involve an investment of as little as $25,000.44 Business expansion and closure are also common phenomena in the retail sector. In Maryland, for example, of the 117 businesses with the word “vape” in their business name in January 2020, 58 were active, while the rest were not. In fact, the inactive businesses were typically forfeited (43 of 117 businesses) or dissolved, suggesting that vape shops close or consolidate as a matter of course.45 It is plausible that adult-only vape shops will be significantly more impacted by a flavor ban or restriction given the breadth of flavored e-liquids each sells and the amount of shelf-space that will need to be replaced. With the data currently available, it is challenging to predict the exact impact a ban or restriction may have on vape shop closures and employment. Nevertheless, we modeled varying degrees of impact such a policy may have on vape shop closures and employment in Maryland. As of January 2020, there were 124 verified and 284 unverified e- cigarette retailers in the state, and 90 percent of