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Adelaide Landing Residential Development <br />Traffic Impact Analysis <br />FUTURE YEAR FORECASTS <br />1/31/2017 <br />Westwood worked with the City's traffic engineer to identify future years for analysis. The <br />Adelaide Landing development has a five-year phasing schedule. Therefore, assuming <br />construction of the first phase would occur in 2017, build -out could occur in 2021. It was <br />determined that the study years would be one year after full development (2022) and the <br />twenty year timeframe (2040, as specified by the City's traffic engineer). <br />Westwood also reviewed the findings from the TH 61 Corridor Access Management Plan, <br />The TH 61 at 130th Street Intersection Control Evaluation (ICE) Report, and the City of Hugo's <br />2030 Comprehensive Plan. <br />None of these utilized specific growth factors to determine background traffic. MnDOT <br />State Aid, however, provides twenty-year traffic projection factors that provide a means to <br />calculate annual growth rates.' For Washington County, the traffic projection factor is listed <br />as 1.3. Based on annualizing the twenty-year growth projection, this results in a 1.3% <br />annual growth rate. This factor (which matches the a.m. peak hour growth rate discussed <br />earlier) will be used to calculate the background growth for both 2022 and 2040 No -Build <br />traffic scenarios. <br />There are no known intersection improvements planned in the study area outside of the <br />Adelaide Landing development. <br />2022 No -Build Scenario <br />Figure 3 illustrates the 2022 No -Build traffic projection for a.m. and p.m. peak hours. Using <br />these volume projections, Westwood calculated levels of service for the 2022 No -Build <br />scenario. These appear on Table 4. <br />In this scenario, no geometric or lane arrangement changes were assumed. The existing <br />MnDOT signal timings were not adjusted or optimized. Nevertheless, eastbound and <br />northbound movements along TH 61 record levels of service below acceptable levels. In <br />addition, queue lengths exceed available turn lane storage lengths at the southbound left <br />turn lanes along TH 61 at 1401" Street. <br />2040 No -Build Scenario <br />Figure 4 illustrates the 2040 No -Build traffic projection for a.m. and p.m. peak hours. Using <br />these volume projections, Westwood calculated levels of service for the 2040 No -Build <br />scenario. Again, existing MnDOT signal timings were used and not optimized for the future <br />condition. These appear on Table 5. <br />'Traffic Protection Factors, Minnesota Department of Transportation State Aid, Saint Paul, MN, Fall 2015 <br />19 Westwood <br />