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TRUNK HIGHWAY (TH) 61 VISIONING STUDY Scope of Work <br />5 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Study area crash data from 1/1/2017 to 12/31/2021 will be obtained from MnDOT’s MnCMAT2 <br />crash database. Detailed intersection crash analysis will be performed at each of the <br />intersections where 24 hour turning movement counts are collected. <br />Transportation data from StreetLight data will be obtained using the Washington County <br />StreetLight Data subscription. This analysis will identify origin-destination patterns in the study <br />area, typical trip lengths on TH 61, travel time reliability, and potential latent non-motorized <br />travel demand. <br />4.2 Traffic projections – We will develop traffic projections for 2030 and 2040 conditions. Traffic <br />forecasts will be based on a review of relevant planning documents and a review of travel <br />demand model results from the Washington County and Metropolitan Council travel demand <br />models. <br />A sensitivity analysis will be performed to consider the impact from changes in the <br />transportation landscape such as increased teleworking, connected/autonomous vehicles, and <br />increased transit or non-motorized mode splits. Sensitivity analysis will be used to develop a <br />range of potential future conditions that will be vetted through project partners. <br />Finalized 2030 and 2040 traffic projections will include daily future traffic estimates and AM/PM <br />peak hour turning movement estimates. <br />4.3 No Build Traffic Operations Analysis – AM and PM peak hour traffic operations analysis will be <br />performed for all intersections listed in Task 4.1. This analysis will be performed using existing <br />traffic data, 2030 traffic forecasts, and 2040 traffic forecasts. Analysis will be completed using <br />the Synchro 11/SimTraffic software. Key measures of effectiveness that will be reported include <br />approach and overall intersection delays/levels of service, queues, and travel times. <br />Analysis will first be performed assuming the existing roadway configuration to identify traffic <br />operations issues that exist today or are expected to be introduced by traffic growth through <br />2040. For 2030 and 2040 traffic conditions, any fiscally constrained roadway improvements that <br />are documented in local planning documents will be considered to be in place for No Build <br />condition analyses for the appropriate years. Analysis will assume operations at LOS E or worse <br />to be deficient, in accordance with typical roadway design standards for the area. <br />Sensitivity analysis for alternative growth or travel behavior scenarios will be modeled by <br />applying generalized adjustment factors to baseline turning movement projections that are <br />established in Task 4.2. We assume up to two sensitivity analysis runs (higher than the forecast <br />and lower than the forecast). This will be summarized in the existing and future traffic <br />conditions memorandum. <br />4.4 Crash Analysis – Using the crash data described in Task 4.1, intersection and corridor crash <br />frequencies and rates will be calculated to identify potential roadway safety issues in the study <br />area. Crash analysis will be guided by the Critical Crash Analysis concept that is described in the <br />MnDOT Traffic Safety Fundamentals Handbook. For comparison purposes, data from the 2016- <br />2020 MnDOT Green Sheets will be utilized.